📈 INSTITUTIONAL PRE-MARKET PLAN

INSTITUTIONAL NQ TRADING PLAN (NQ=F - E-mini Nasdaq-100)

Generated: 2026-09-18 08:35 ET | Model: gemini-2.5-pro | Data: yfinance 5m & daily

1. PRE-CALCULATED MARKET METRICS SNAPSHOT

NQ (E-mini Nasdaq-100) MARKET METRICS SNAPSHOT

Ticker / Contract: NQ=F
Timestamp: 2026-09-18 08:35 ET (Pre-RTH)
Current Price: 29,772.50 pts

6-Month Macro Structure

6M Range: 22,961.50 - 30,968.00 (Current: Upper 15% of range (Near 6M Highs))
20-day ATR: 411.85 pts
50 EMA: 29,302.48 | 20 EMA: 29,361.77 (50 SMA: 29,279.24 | 20 SMA: 29,348.09)
Major Multi-Month HVNs (Acceptance Nodes): 29,460.00, 29,700.00, 30,270.00, 30,480.00
Major Multi-Month LVNs (Rejection / Vacuum Nodes): 24,840.00, 23,640.00, 26,970.00
Volatility Context: 30-day Realized Vol: 13.5% annualized

3-Month Macro Structure (Quarterly Value Profile)

3M Range: 27,201.50 - 30,968.00 (Current: 68% percentile of 3M range (Mid-range))
3M Value Area (70%): VPOC: 29,520.00 | VAH: 30,090.00 | VAL: 29,010.00
3M Volume Nodes: Top HVNs: 29,490.00, 29,670.00, 28,710.00, 28,440.00 | Top LVNs: 28,290.00, 28,800.00, 29,640.00

Prior 24-Hour / Globex Session

ONH (Overnight High): 29,966.75 | ONL (Overnight Low): 29,648.00 | ON Range: 318.75 pts (77.4% of 20d ATR)
Overnight VPOC: 29,685.00 (Developing VAH: 29,880.00 | Developing VAL: 29,655.00)
Overnight Inventory: 76% Net Long
Overnight Relative Volume (RVOL): 48.0% of Globex baseline
Overnight Net Delta Trend: +5,041 contracts (Bullish accumulation)
Prior Regular Trading Hours (RTH): Settle: 29,716.50 | Value Area High (VAH): 29,760.00 | Value Area Low (VAL): 29,685.00 | Prior VPOC: 29,730.00
Today's Macro Events: None scheduled (Normal Auction Environment)

Relation: Last 24 Hours vs. 3-Month Macro Structure

Quarterly Value Posture: Accepting Inside 3-Month Value Area (29,010.00 - 30,090.00) - Quarterly Rotational Equilibrium / Balance
Quarterly Fair Value Proximity: +252.50 pts (+0.86%) above 3M VPOC (29,520.00) - serves as macro mean-reversion magnet if buying exhausts
24H Auction vs. 3M Extremes: Overnight auction contained within 3-Month range (68.3% percentile of quarterly bracket)
Overnight vs. Quarterly VPOC: Developing Overnight VPOC (29,685.00) is +165.00 pts relative to 3M VPOC (29,520.00)

2. INSTITUTIONAL EXECUTION PLAN & SCENARIOS

Of course. Here is the institutional Next-Day Trading Plan for NQ, derived from the provided Market Metrics Snapshot.

NQ E-mini Nasdaq-100: Next-Day Execution Plan

Date: 2026-09-18
Strategist: Lead Institutional Tech Equity Strategist
Focus: Auction Market Theory, Market Profile

1. Market State & Multi-Timeframe Bias

Opening Type & Immediate Context: The current pre-market price of 29,772.50 indicates an Open-Auction Out-of-Value (Above), as it is positioned just above the prior day's Value Area High (VAH) of 29,760.00. This represents a potential acceptance of higher prices, but the overnight inventory imbalance (76% net long) suggests a high probability of an early inventory correction (long liquidation) at the RTH open. The market is gapping up from yesterday's settle (29,716.50).
Multi-Timeframe Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bullish (Rotational)
- Short-Term (24-Hour): Bullish sentiment is evident from the overnight auction, which established a higher range and accumulated a significant net long inventory. However, this strength is unconfirmed by RTH participants and carries immediate fade risk.
- Intermediate-Term (3-Month): The market is in a state of balance and rotational equilibrium. We are currently trading firmly inside the quarterly value area (29,010 - 30,090). This structure favors mean-reversion and two-sided trade until a clear initiative breakout occurs above the 3M VAH or below the 3M VAL.
- Conclusion: The primary expectation is for a two-sided, rotational session. While the overnight action is bullish, the larger quarterly structure and heavy long inventory cap conviction for a sustained trend day without fresh catalysts. The key question is whether the RTH open will see continuation buying to challenge the quarterly VAH or an inventory flush back toward yesterday's value.

2. Key Inflection Levels

Pivot / Balance Zone: 29,760.00 - 29,716.50
- This zone is defined by the Prior Day VAH and the Prior Day Settle/VPOC area. It represents yesterday's area of accepted fair value. How the market treats this zone at the open will set the tone for the session. Acceptance above is bullish; acceptance back inside signals rotation or failure.
Primary Resistance (R1): 29,965.00 - 30,090.00
- This critical resistance cluster contains the Overnight High (ONH) and the 3-Month VAH. A test of this area is the primary objective for bulls. A failure here would strongly suggest a rotation back down through the range, while a sustained breakout above 30,090 would signal the start of a new expansion phase.
Primary Support (S1): 29,685.00 - 29,650.00
- This support zone is anchored by the Overnight VPOC, the Prior Day VAL, and the Overnight Low (ONL). This is the first key destination for sellers if the open rejects higher prices. A defense of this level is critical for bulls to maintain short-term control.

3. Primary Scenarios (If/Then)

A. Bullish Scenario: Acceptance Above Prior Day Value

Trigger: The market holds above the pivot zone (29,760) in the opening 30-60 minutes, absorbing any initial profit-taking from overnight longs.
Confirmation: Bids step in on early dips, preventing price from being accepted back inside yesterday's value area. Look for positive delta and a build-out of volume above 29,760.
Target 1: 29,965 - 30,090 (R1 Zone). Test of the ONH and the upper boundary of the 3-month balance area.
Target 2 (Expansion): 30,270 (Major Multi-Month HVN). If the auction breaks and closes above the 3M VAH (30,090) with strong volume, this becomes the next logical destination.
Invalidation: A sustained break and acceptance back below the pivot at 29,716.50.

B. Bearish Scenario: Overnight Inventory Correction & Failed Auction

Trigger: The RTH open fails to attract new buyers, and price is quickly rejected, breaking back below the pivot zone (29,760 - 29,716.50).
Confirmation: Aggressive selling (negative delta) on the open as overnight longs liquidate. The market is unable to reclaim the Prior Day VAH (29,760) on subsequent bounces.
Target 1: 29,685 - 29,650 (S1 Zone). Test of the ON VPOC and ONL.
Target 2 (Mean Reversion): 29,520 - 29,490 (3-Month VPOC / HVN). If S1 fails to hold, the auction will be drawn toward the quarterly point of control, which represents the ultimate "fair value" magnet within this balance structure.
Invalidation: The market reclaims and holds above the pivot at 29,760.

C. Range/Choppiness Play: Balance Rules

Trigger: The market fails the initial breakout attempt but finds support before reaching S1, becoming contained within or around yesterday's range.
Boundaries: Fade the extremes of the developing daily range, using the Prior Day VAH (29,760) as a reference for short entries and the Prior Day VAL (29,685) as a reference for long entries.
Strategy: Execute short-term trades targeting the other side of the range or the developing VPOC. This scenario remains dominant as long as price is contained between the R1 and S1 zones without a clear initiative drive.

4. Risk & Invalidation

Primary Risk: The 76% Net Long Overnight Inventory presents a significant risk of a sharp, early liquidation break. Do not chase the opening gap higher without confirmation of new RTH buying interest. The first move is often a "false" move designed to trap emotional participants.
Volatility & Range: The overnight range has already consumed 77% of the 20-day ATR (411.85 pts). This reduces the statistical probability of a wide-ranging trend day and increases the odds of a rotational, two-sided session unless a major catalyst emerges.
Macro Context: The market is trading +252.50 pts above the 3-Month VPOC (29,520). This distance represents a premium within the quarterly balance. The further price extends upward without a breakout above the 3M VAH, the stronger the gravitational pull becomes for a mean-reversion trade back towards this fair