📈 INSTITUTIONAL PRE-MARKET PLAN

INSTITUTIONAL NQ TRADING PLAN (NQ=F - E-mini Nasdaq-100)

Generated: 2026-09-16 08:35 ET | Model: gemini-2.5-pro | Data: yfinance 5m & daily

1. PRE-CALCULATED MARKET METRICS SNAPSHOT

NQ (E-mini Nasdaq-100) MARKET METRICS SNAPSHOT

Ticker / Contract: NQ=F
Timestamp: 2026-09-16 08:35 ET (Pre-RTH)
Current Price: 29,428.25 pts

6-Month Macro Structure

6M Range: 22,961.50 - 30,968.00 (Current: Upper 19% of range (Near 6M Highs))
20-day ATR: 402.02 pts
50 EMA: 29,296.44 | 20 EMA: 29,349.30 (50 SMA: 29,292.26 | 20 SMA: 29,351.03)
Major Multi-Month HVNs (Acceptance Nodes): 29,460.00, 29,700.00, 30,270.00, 30,480.00
Major Multi-Month LVNs (Rejection / Vacuum Nodes): 24,870.00, 23,640.00, 26,970.00
Volatility Context: 30-day Realized Vol: 13.3% annualized

3-Month Macro Structure (Quarterly Value Profile)

3M Range: 27,201.50 - 30,968.00 (Current: 59% percentile of 3M range (Mid-range))
3M Value Area (70%): VPOC: 29,520.00 | VAH: 30,090.00 | VAL: 29,010.00
3M Volume Nodes: Top HVNs: 29,490.00, 29,700.00, 28,710.00, 28,440.00 | Top LVNs: 28,290.00, 28,800.00, 29,640.00

Prior 24-Hour / Globex Session

ONH (Overnight High): 29,439.00 | ONL (Overnight Low): 29,226.00 | ON Range: 213.00 pts (53.0% of 20d ATR)
Overnight VPOC: 29,370.00 (Developing VAH: 29,400.00 | Developing VAL: 29,280.00)
Overnight Inventory: 79% Net Long
Overnight Relative Volume (RVOL): 40.5% of Globex baseline
Overnight Net Delta Trend: +4,693 contracts (Bullish accumulation)
Prior Regular Trading Hours (RTH): Settle: 29,281.00 | Value Area High (VAH): 29,310.00 | Value Area Low (VAL): 29,220.00 | Prior VPOC: 29,265.00
Today's Macro Events: Potential FOMC Rate Decision / Press Conference - 14:00 ET

Relation: Last 24 Hours vs. 3-Month Macro Structure

Quarterly Value Posture: Accepting Inside 3-Month Value Area (29,010.00 - 30,090.00) - Quarterly Rotational Equilibrium / Balance
Quarterly Fair Value Proximity: -91.75 pts (-0.31%) below 3M VPOC (29,520.00) - serves as macro mean-reversion magnet if selling exhausts
24H Auction vs. 3M Extremes: Overnight auction contained within 3-Month range (59.1% percentile of quarterly bracket)
Overnight vs. Quarterly VPOC: Developing Overnight VPOC (29,370.00) is -150.00 pts relative to 3M VPOC (29,520.00)

2. INSTITUTIONAL EXECUTION PLAN & SCENARIOS

Of course. Here is the institutional Next-Day Trading Plan for NQ, derived from the provided Market Metrics Snapshot.

NQ E-mini Nasdaq-100 | Next-Day Execution Plan

Date: 2026-09-16
Author: Lead Institutional Tech Equity Strategist
Focus: Auction Market Theory, Market Profile, Multi-Timeframe Analysis

1. Market State & Multi-Timeframe Bias

Opening Type & Short-Term State: The market is indicating an Open-Auction Out-of-Balance with a significant Gap Up. The current pre-market price of 29,428.25 is trading well above the prior day's Value Area High (VAH) of 29,310.00. This represents initiative buying activity in the overnight session and a rejection of yesterday's balanced price range.
Multi-Timeframe Context (Quarterly): Despite the short-term bullish gap, the auction remains firmly inside the 3-month Value Area (29,010 - 30,090). This defines the dominant market state as a Quarterly Rotational Equilibrium / Balance. Price is currently trading just below the 3-Month VPOC (Point of Control) at 29,520.00, which serves as the primary macro magnet and fair value reference.
Overall Bias: Cautiously Bullish / Rotational. The immediate bias is bullish due to the gap-up, but this is tempered by two key factors:
1. Excessively Long Overnight Inventory (79%): This creates a high probability of an early RTH inventory correction (profit-taking by overnight longs), potentially leading to a gap-fill attempt.
2. Proximity to Quarterly VPOC (29,520): This major HVN represents significant overhead supply and the gravitational center of the quarterly balance. Until price can find acceptance above this level, the primary expectation is for rotational, two-sided trade. The FOMC event at 14:00 ET is a major catalyst that will likely resolve this tension.

2. Key Inflection Levels

Pivot / Balance Point: 29,520.00 (3-Month VPOC). This is the most significant structural level for the session. Acceptance above this level signals a potential test of the upper quarterly range. Failure to overcome it keeps the market in a rotational state, targeting lower references.
Primary Resistance (R1): 29,700.00 (Major Multi-Month & 3M HVN). This is the next significant area of supply concentration above the pivot. A successful auction above the 3M VPOC would target this node.
Primary Support (S1): 29,310.00 (Prior Day VAH / Top of Gap). This is the first critical support level. A failure to hold this level confirms the gap is weak and signals a full inventory correction is underway, targeting value from the prior session.

3. Primary Scenarios (If/Then)

A. Bullish Scenario: Gap-and-Go / Quarterly VPOC Acceptance

Trigger: Price holds above the 29,310.00 support level during the initial RTH auction and subsequently finds acceptance (builds time and volume) above the 29,520.00 pivot.
Confirmation:
- The RTH open sees responsive buying, preventing a deep probe into the gap.
- Volume increases on the break and hold above 29,520.00.
- The ONH at 29,439.00 is quickly overcome and becomes support.
Target 1: 29,700.00 (Major HVN).
Target 2: 30,090.00 (3-Month VAH).
Invalidation: A sustained break and acceptance back below the Prior Day VAH at 29,310.00. This negates the gap strength and shifts the odds toward the Bearish Scenario.

B. Bearish Scenario: Inventory Correction / Gap Fill

Trigger: Failure to hold the initial RTH highs, followed by a decisive break and acceptance below Primary Support at 29,310.00.
Confirmation:
- Aggressive selling pressure at the RTH open, with the ONH (29,439.00) acting as a hard ceiling.
- Price quickly trades through the Overnight VPOC (29,370.00), indicating overnight longs are liquidating.
Target 1: 29,265.00 (Prior Day VPOC).
Target 2: 29,220.00 (Prior Day VAL / ONL confluence). A break here could accelerate toward the 3-Month VAL at 29,010.00 over multiple sessions.
Invalidation: Sellers fail to push price below 29,310.00, and buyers reclaim the Overnight VPOC (29,370.00), trapping sellers who initiated shorts on the gap-fill attempt.

C. Range/Choppiness Play: Pre-FOMC Balance

Boundaries: The market may establish a tight rotational range between 29,310.00 (Prior Day VAH) on the downside and the 29,520.00 (3M VPOC) area on the upside.
Strategy: This scenario is highly probable leading into the 14:00 ET FOMC announcement. The plan is to fade the extremes of this temporary balance. Look for responsive selling opportunities near the 29,440-29,520 zone and responsive buying opportunities near the 29,310-29,370 zone. This is a lower-conviction, scalp-oriented environment until the FOMC catalyst provides directional clarity.

4. Risk & Invalidation

Primary Risk - Inventory Correction: The 79% net long overnight inventory is the most immediate risk to the bullish scenario. A "gap fill" is a probable outcome as these participants take profits. Any long positions initiated early must be managed with the understanding that a test of 29,310 is likely.
Primary Risk - FOMC Event (14:00 ET): This is a high-impact catalyst capable of invalidating all pre-existing technical structures. Expect low volume and choppy, range-bound action leading into the event, followed by a significant volatility and range expansion event. All scenarios should be re-evaluated post-announcement. It is prudent to reduce position size or be flat into the release.
Risk Profile: The 20-day ATR of 402 pts suggests there is ample room for movement beyond the overnight range of 213 pts. The market is currently positioned below the quarterly fair