📈 INSTITUTIONAL PRE-MARKET PLAN

INSTITUTIONAL NQ TRADING PLAN (NQ=F - E-mini Nasdaq-100)

Generated: 2026-09-15 23:30 ET | Model: gemini-2.5-pro | Data: yfinance 5m & daily

1. PRE-CALCULATED MARKET METRICS SNAPSHOT

NQ (E-mini Nasdaq-100) MARKET METRICS SNAPSHOT

Ticker / Contract: NQ=F
Timestamp: 2026-09-15 23:30 ET (Pre-RTH)
Current Price: 29,331.75 pts

6-Month Macro Structure

6M Range: 22,961.50 - 30,968.00 (Current: 80% percentile of 6M range (Mid-range))
20-day ATR: 403.30 pts
50 EMA: 29,305.83 | 20 EMA: 29,376.87 (50 SMA: 29,299.06 | 20 SMA: 29,377.75)
Major Multi-Month HVNs (Acceptance Nodes): 29,460.00, 29,700.00, 30,270.00, 30,480.00
Major Multi-Month LVNs (Rejection / Vacuum Nodes): 24,870.00, 23,640.00, 26,970.00
Volatility Context: 30-day Realized Vol: 15.8% annualized

3-Month Macro Structure (Quarterly Value Profile)

3M Range: 27,201.50 - 30,968.00 (Current: 57% percentile of 3M range (Mid-range))
3M Value Area (70%): VPOC: 29,520.00 | VAH: 30,120.00 | VAL: 29,010.00
3M Volume Nodes: Top HVNs: 29,490.00, 29,700.00, 28,710.00, 28,440.00 | Top LVNs: 28,290.00, 28,800.00, 29,640.00

Prior 24-Hour / Globex Session

ONH (Overnight High): 29,335.75 | ONL (Overnight Low): 29,226.00 | ON Range: 109.75 pts (27.2% of 20d ATR)
Overnight VPOC: 29,265.00 (Developing VAH: 29,295.00 | Developing VAL: 29,250.00)
Overnight Inventory: 76% Net Short
Overnight Relative Volume (RVOL): 11.5% of Globex baseline
Overnight Net Delta Trend: 833 contracts (Rotational / Neutral)
Prior Regular Trading Hours (RTH): Settle: 29,281.00 | Value Area High (VAH): 29,310.00 | Value Area Low (VAL): 29,220.00 | Prior VPOC: 29,265.00
Today's Macro Events: None scheduled (Normal Auction Environment)

Relation: Last 24 Hours vs. 3-Month Macro Structure

Quarterly Value Posture: Accepting Inside 3-Month Value Area (29,010.00 - 30,120.00) - Quarterly Rotational Equilibrium / Balance
Quarterly Fair Value Proximity: -188.25 pts (-0.64%) below 3M VPOC (29,520.00) - serves as macro mean-reversion magnet if selling exhausts
24H Auction vs. 3M Extremes: Overnight auction contained within 3-Month range (56.6% percentile of quarterly bracket)
Overnight vs. Quarterly VPOC: Developing Overnight VPOC (29,265.00) is -255.00 pts relative to 3M VPOC (29,520.00)

2. INSTITUTIONAL EXECUTION PLAN & SCENARIOS

Excellent. Based on the provided Market Metrics Snapshot, here is a detailed, institutional-grade Next-Day Trading Plan for the NQ.

NQ E-mini Nasdaq-100: Next-Day Execution Plan

Date: 2026-09-16
Strategist: Lead Institutional Tech Equity Strategist
Focus: Auction Market Theory, Market Profile

1. Market State & Multi-Timeframe Bias

Opening Type & Daily Posture: The current price at 29,331.75 is positioned above the prior day's Value Area High (VAH) of 29,310. This indicates an Open-Auction Out of Value to the upside. The market is gapping slightly above yesterday's settlement (29,281), signaling immediate strength and a potential initiative buying tail at the open. The primary question for the RTH session is whether this opening strength is genuine acceptance of higher prices or a "look above and fail" scenario.
Multi-Timeframe Bias (Quarterly vs. Daily):
- Macro Context (Quarterly): The market is in a state of Quarterly Balance. We are trading firmly inside the 3-Month Value Area (29,010 - 30,120). This implies that, from a macro perspective, the primary expectation is for rotational, mean-reverting behavior until price can break and hold outside of this established value range. We are currently trading below the quarterly "fairest price," the 3M VPOC at 29,520, which will act as a significant magnet and/or resistance.
- Tactical Context (Daily): The daily posture is attempting to transition from Balance to Imbalance. By opening above the prior day's value, the market is signaling a potential rejection of yesterday's prices and an attempt to auction higher.
Core Narrative: The market is in a structural conflict. The long-term timeframe (Quarterly) is balanced and rotational, while the short-term timeframe (Daily) is attempting an upside breakout. The session's outcome will be determined by whether the initiative buyers can sustain momentum toward the quarterly mean (3M VPOC) or if responsive sellers from the larger balance area push price back into yesterday's range. The significant 76% Net Short overnight inventory heavily favors an early upside resolution (short squeeze) if the opening bid is firm.

2. Key Inflection Levels

Session Pivot / Bull-Bear Line: 29,310 - 29,335 Zone
- Rationale: This zone represents the confluence of the Prior Day VAH (29,310) and the Overnight High (29,335). Sustained acceptance above this zone confirms the breakout and targets higher prices. A failure to hold and acceptance back below 29,310 signals a failed auction and targets mean reversion lower.
Primary Resistance (R1): 29,490 - 29,520 Zone
- Rationale: This is the most significant structural resistance. It contains a major 3-Month HVN (29,490) and the 3-Month VPOC (29,520). This is the quarterly fair value and the primary target for any sustained bullish momentum. Expect significant responsive selling activity on the first test.
Primary Support (S1): 29,265 - 29,220 Zone
- Rationale: This zone represents the confluence of the Prior Day VPOC (29,265), the Overnight VPOC (29,265), the Overnight Low (29,226), and the Prior Day VAL (29,220). This is the "fair value" area from the last 24 hours and should provide strong initial support on any pullback.

3. Primary Scenarios (If/Then Logic)

A. Bullish Scenario: Acceptance Above Value / Inventory Correction

Trigger: The market opens and establishes a bid above the Session Pivot (29,335).
Confirmation:
1. Price holds above 29,310 on an initial pullback (the "80% rule" test).
2. We observe strong upside delta and volume, indicating the large pool of overnight shorts are being forced to cover, fueling the rally.
Target 1: 29,520 (3-Month VPOC). This is the primary objective, representing a full rotation back to quarterly fair value.
Target 2 (Extension): 29,700 (Major Multi-Month HVN). If momentum is strong enough to slice through the 3M VPOC, this is the next logical destination for price discovery within the quarterly balance.
Invalidation: A decisive break and acceptance back below the Prior Day VAH at 29,310.

B. Bearish Scenario: Failed Auction / Rejection at Prior Day Highs

Trigger: Price attempts to rally above the ONH (29,335) but is met with aggressive selling, driving it back below the Session Pivot (29,310). This is a classic "look above and fail" pattern.
Confirmation:
1. Price begins to consolidate below 29,310, turning this level from support into resistance.
2. The market auctions back into the prior day's value area.
Target 1: 29,265 - 29,220 (Primary Support Zone). This represents a reversion to yesterday's value.
Target 2 (Breakdown): 29,010 (3-Month VAL). A break of the primary support zone with conviction would put the lower boundary of the quarterly balance in play.
Invalidation: Price reclaims and holds above the 29,335 level, negating the failed auction pattern.

C. Range/Choppiness Play: Balance Day

Trigger: The market fails to find follow-through on the initial upside break but also finds buyers at the Primary Support Zone. Price becomes "stuck" between the key levels.
Condition: Price accepts trading