📈 INSTITUTIONAL PRE-MARKET PLAN

INSTITUTIONAL CL TRADING PLAN (CL=F - WTI Crude Oil)

Generated: 2026-09-23 10:21 ET | Model: gemini-2.5-pro | Data: yfinance 5m & daily

1. PRE-CALCULATED MARKET METRICS SNAPSHOT

CL (WTI Crude Oil) MARKET METRICS SNAPSHOT

Ticker / Contract: CL=F
Timestamp: 2026-09-23 10:23 ET (Pre-RTH)
Current Price: 91.98 $/bbl

6-Month Macro Structure

6M Range: 67.04 - 117.63 (Current: 49% percentile of 6M range (Mid-range))
20-day ATR: 4.55 $/bbl
50 EMA: 89.75 | 20 EMA: 94.60 (50 SMA: 87.47 | 20 SMA: 94.24)
Major Multi-Month HVNs (Acceptance Nodes): 91.00, 83.30, 93.10, 102.55
Major Multi-Month LVNs (Rejection / Vacuum Nodes): 107.10, 82.25, 69.30
Volatility Context: 30-day Realized Vol: 41.3% annualized

3-Month Macro Structure (Quarterly Value Profile)

3M Range: 67.04 - 106.75 (Current: 63% percentile of 3M range (Mid-range))
3M Value Area (70%): VPOC: 82.95 | VAH: 94.15 | VAL: 72.45
3M Volume Nodes: Top HVNs: 83.30, 79.80, 91.00, 81.20 | Top LVNs: 86.10, 82.25, 69.30

Prior 24-Hour / Globex Session

ONH (Overnight High): 92.12 | ONL (Overnight Low): 88.71 | ON Range: 3.41 $/bbl (74.9% of 20d ATR)
Overnight VPOC: 91.20 (Developing VAH: 91.20 | Developing VAL: 89.40)
Overnight Inventory: 75% Net Long
Overnight Relative Volume (RVOL): 111.4% of Globex baseline
Overnight Net Delta Trend: +11,183 contracts (Bullish accumulation)
Prior Regular Trading Hours (RTH): Settle: 89.83 | Value Area High (VAH): 91.35 | Value Area Low (VAL): 89.85 | Prior VPOC: 90.45
Today's Macro Events: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report - 10:30 ET

Relation: Last 24 Hours vs. 3-Month Macro Structure

Quarterly Value Posture: Accepting Inside 3-Month Value Area (72.45 - 94.15) - Quarterly Rotational Equilibrium / Balance
Quarterly Fair Value Proximity: +9.03 $/bbl (+10.89%) above 3M VPOC (82.95) - serves as macro mean-reversion magnet if buying exhausts
24H Auction vs. 3M Extremes: Overnight auction contained within 3-Month range (62.8% percentile of quarterly bracket)
Overnight vs. Quarterly VPOC: Developing Overnight VPOC (91.20) is +8.25 $/bbl relative to 3M VPOC (82.95)

TypeSafe Jev (System One) Calibrated Decision Intelligence

Primary Market Regime: Initiative Trend Discovery (Confidence: 33.0%)
Predicted Dalton Opening Type: Open Drive (Confidence: 27.0%)
Inventory Squeeze / Liquidation Risk: 40.0% probability
Structural Location Quality Score: 2.35 / 5.00

Scenario / Regime	Calibrated Probability
Initiative Trend Discovery	`55.0%`
Inventory Correction / Mean Reversion	`44.0%`
Rotational Balance	`1.0%`

2. INSTITUTIONAL EXECUTION PLAN & SCENARIOS

CL (WTI Crude Oil) Next-Day Execution Plan

Strategist: Lead Institutional Energy Commodities Desk
Date: 2026-09-23
Subject: Tactical Auction Plan for RTH Session

This plan outlines our primary, data-driven scenarios for the upcoming Regular Trading Hours (RTH) session in WTI Crude Oil (CL). The analysis is rooted in auction market theory, integrating the provided multi-timeframe market profile metrics and the calibrated probabilities from the TypeSafe Jev (System One) model.

1. Market State & Multi-Timeframe Bias

Opening Context: The market is indicating an Out-of-Balance open, gapping up significantly above yesterday's settlement (89.83) and Value Area High (91.35). This signifies a strong overnight bid and an immediate rejection of the prior day's balanced price range.
Calibrated Thesis (TypeSafe Jev): The System One model presents a high-conviction thesis for volatility and directional movement, with a near-even split between two opposing outcomes. This is the central conflict for today's session:
- Primary Thesis (55.0% Probability): Initiative Trend Discovery. The model assigns the highest probability to a continuation of the overnight buying, potentially leading to a trend day. The predicted Open Drive (27.0% probability) aligns with this, suggesting an attempt to immediately auction higher without looking back.
- Counter-Thesis (44.0% Probability): Inventory Correction / Mean Reversion. This is a highly significant secondary probability. The overnight inventory is 75% Net Long, creating a structurally vulnerable market. If upside continuation fails, these longs are trapped offside, and the 40.0% Inventory Squeeze/Liquidation Risk becomes the dominant market force, driving a sharp reversion back toward prior day value.
- Conclusion: The market is coiled for a decisive move. A quiet, rotational day is extremely unlikely (1.0% probability). The session's outcome hinges on whether the overnight longs get paid or are forced to liquidate.
Quarterly Structure Assessment: The current auction is taking place within the upper distribution of the 3-month balance (VAH: 94.15 / VAL: 72.45). While we are technically "in balance" on a quarterly timeframe, we are trading at a significant premium of +$9.03 above the 3-Month VPOC (82.95). This location is tenuous; it is poor for initiating new long-term positions (Structural Location Quality Score: 2.35/5.00) and makes the market susceptible to mean reversion if buying momentum wanes.

2. Key Inflection Levels

Daily Pivot Zone: 91.20 - 91.35
- This zone represents the confluence of the Overnight VPOC (91.20) and the Prior Day VAH (91.35). Acceptance above this zone validates the overnight auction and targets higher prices. Failure to hold this zone signals a rejection of the gap and targets the inventory correction scenario.
Primary Resistance (R1 / R2): 92.12 / 93.10
- R1 (92.12): The Overnight High. A clean break and hold above this level is the trigger for the bullish trend scenario.
- R2 (93.10): A major multi-month High Volume Node (HVN). This is the first logical structural target on a trend-up day.
- R3 (Quarterly Expansion Target): 94.15: The 3-Month Value Area High.
Primary Support (S1 / S2): 90.45 / 89.85
- S1 (90.45): The Prior Day VPOC. This is the primary target for an inventory correction if the pivot fails.
- S2 (89.85): The Prior Day Value Area Low. A test here would signify a complete failure of the overnight auction and a full gap fill.
- S3 (Overnight Extreme): 88.71: The Overnight Low.

3. Primary Scenarios (If/Then)

The EIA report at 10:30 ET is the primary scheduled catalyst that will likely resolve the tension between these two high-probability scenarios.

A) Bullish Scenario: Initiative Trend Discovery (55% Probability)

IF the market opens and finds acceptance above the Daily Pivot Zone (91.35)...
AND we see a committed breakout above the ONH (92.12) on strong volume and positive delta (confirming an Open Drive)...
THEN we will initiate/add to long positions targeting:
- Target 1: 93.10 (Multi-Month HVN).
- Target 2: 94.15 (3-Month VAH), which would represent an attempt to initiate an expansion phase out of the quarterly balance.
Invalidation: A decisive failure to hold the 91.20 level, signaling that buyers are exhausted and the overnight longs are trapped.

B) Bearish Scenario: Inventory Correction / Long Liquidation (44% Probability)

IF the market fails to extend above the ONH (92.12) and is rejected back below the Daily Pivot Zone (91.20)...
AND we observe an increase in selling pressure as price auctions below the pivot (confirming the trapped inventory thesis)...
THEN we will initiate short positions to play the mean reversion, targeting:
- Target 1: 90.45 (Prior Day VPOC).
- Target 2: 89.85 - 88.71 (Prior Day VAL / Overnight Low), representing a full retracement of the overnight move.
Invalidation: Price reclaims and finds acceptance back above the 91.35 level.