📈 INSTITUTIONAL PRE-MARKET PLAN

INSTITUTIONAL CL TRADING PLAN (CL=F - WTI Crude Oil)

Generated: 2026-09-18 08:35 ET | Model: gemini-2.5-pro | Data: yfinance 5m & daily

1. PRE-CALCULATED MARKET METRICS SNAPSHOT

CL (WTI Crude Oil) MARKET METRICS SNAPSHOT

Ticker / Contract: CL=F
Timestamp: 2026-09-18 08:36 ET (Pre-RTH)
Current Price: 96.72 $/bbl

6-Month Macro Structure

6M Range: 67.04 - 117.63 (Current: 59% percentile of 6M range (Mid-range))
20-day ATR: 4.31 $/bbl
50 EMA: 89.11 | 20 EMA: 94.47 (50 SMA: 86.33 | 20 SMA: 92.66)
Major Multi-Month HVNs (Acceptance Nodes): 92.05, 101.50, 96.60, 87.85
Major Multi-Month LVNs (Rejection / Vacuum Nodes): 108.15, 106.40, 73.50
Volatility Context: 30-day Realized Vol: 42.1% annualized

3-Month Macro Structure (Quarterly Value Profile)

3M Range: 67.04 - 106.75 (Current: 75% percentile of 3M range (Mid-range))
3M Value Area (70%): VPOC: 82.25 | VAH: 93.45 | VAL: 72.80
3M Volume Nodes: Top HVNs: 82.60, 81.20, 84.00, 85.75 | Top LVNs: 97.65, 77.00, 73.50

Prior 24-Hour / Globex Session

ONH (Overnight High): 101.57 | ONL (Overnight Low): 94.83 | ON Range: 6.74 $/bbl (156.4% of 20d ATR)
Overnight VPOC: 96.30 (Developing VAH: 96.60 | Developing VAL: 95.10)
Overnight Inventory: 99% Net Short
Overnight Relative Volume (RVOL): 71.5% of Globex baseline
Overnight Net Delta Trend: -22,576 contracts (Bearish distribution)
Prior Regular Trading Hours (RTH): Settle: 101.26 | Value Area High (VAH): 102.30 | Value Area Low (VAL): 100.95 | Prior VPOC: 102.00
Today's Macro Events: None scheduled (Normal Auction Environment)

Relation: Last 24 Hours vs. 3-Month Macro Structure

Quarterly Value Posture: Trading Above 3-Month Value (+3.27 $/bbl above 3M VAH 93.45) - Bullish Quarterly Expansion / Discovery Mode
Quarterly Fair Value Proximity: +14.47 $/bbl (+17.59%) above 3M VPOC (82.25) - serves as macro mean-reversion magnet if buying exhausts
24H Auction vs. 3M Extremes: Overnight auction contained within 3-Month range (74.7% percentile of quarterly bracket)
Overnight vs. Quarterly VPOC: Developing Overnight VPOC (96.30) is +14.05 $/bbl relative to 3M VPOC (82.25)

2. INSTITUTIONAL EXECUTION PLAN & SCENARIOS

Of course. Here is the institutional-grade Next-Day Trading Plan for WTI Crude Oil (CL) based on the provided market metrics.

CL (WTI Crude Oil) | Next-Day Execution Plan | 2026-09-18

CONFIDENTIAL: FOR INSTITUTIONAL TRADING DESK USE ONLY

This plan outlines key levels, scenarios, and risk parameters for the upcoming Regular Trading Hours (RTH) session based on auction market theory principles and the provided quantitative data.

1. Market State & Multi-Timeframe Bias

Opening Type & Immediate Bias: The market is indicating an open near 96.72, which is a significant Gap Down from the prior day's value area (100.95 - 102.30). This is an Out-of-Balance state, signaling a rejection of the prices established in the previous RTH session. The immediate overnight pressure is definitively bearish.
24-Hour vs. 3-Month Auction Analysis:
- Quarterly Context: The market remains in a bullish expansion phase on the quarterly timeframe, holding firmly above the 3-Month Value Area High (VAH) of 93.45. This level represents the critical line between continued price discovery to the upside and a potential failure/reversion back into the long-term balance.
- Overnight Narrative: The Globex session produced a massive trend-down day (range is 156% of 20d ATR) after failing near the prior RTH highs. However, this sell-off has so far been contained above the key quarterly breakout level (93.45). The overnight auction found temporary balance around its VPOC at 96.30.
- Core Conflict: The primary tension for today's session is the short-term bearish inventory correction vs. the long-term bullish structural breakout. The extreme 99% Net Short overnight inventory creates a high probability of a short-covering rally if sellers cannot achieve downside continuation early in the RTH session.
Overall Bias: Neutral / Two-Sided. While the overnight trend is bearish, the structural location (above quarterly value) and extreme short inventory create a coiled spring environment. We will let the market's reaction to the key inflection levels dictate directional exposure.

2. Key Inflection Levels

Intraday Pivot Zone: 96.30 - 96.60
- Confluence of the Overnight VPOC (96.30) and a multi-month HVN (96.60).
- Significance: This zone represents the fairest price from the overnight session. Acceptance above this pivot signals buyers are absorbing the overnight selling pressure and favors the short-squeeze scenario. Acceptance below signals sellers remain in control and are targeting lower structural levels.
Primary Resistance (R1): 100.95 - 101.57
- Confluence of the Prior Day Value Area Low (100.95), a major multi-month HVN (101.50), and the Overnight High (101.57).
- Significance: This is the first major upside objective representing a full gap fill. A test of this area would confirm a successful inventory correction and a rejection of the overnight sell-off.
Primary Support (S1): 94.83 - 93.45
- Confluence of the Overnight Low (94.83), the 20-day EMA (94.47), and the critical 3-Month VAH (93.45).
- Significance: This is the macro "line in the sand." A defense of this zone is required to maintain the bullish quarterly expansion thesis. A failure here would signal a major change in market structure, inviting a deeper mean-reversion.

3. Primary Scenarios (If/Then Logic)

A. Bullish Scenario: Inventory Correction / Short Squeeze

Trigger: Price finds acceptance above the Intraday Pivot Zone (96.60).
Confirmation:
1. Sustained trading above 96.60 with strong positive order flow delta.
2. A successful break of the nearest LVN at 97.65, which could accelerate the move.
Target 1: Test of the psychological 100.00 level.
Target 2: A full gap fill into the Primary Resistance zone of 100.95 - 101.50.
Invalidation: A decisive failure to hold the pivot and a break below the Overnight Low at 94.83.

B. Bearish Scenario: Downside Continuation / Acceptance into Quarterly Value

Trigger: Price is rejected from the Intraday Pivot Zone and breaks below the Overnight Low (94.83).
Confirmation:
1. Sustained trading below 94.83 with increasing volume and negative delta.
2. A lack of responsive buying interest at the ONL, indicating seller control.
**Target